Leading researcher: dr. Béla Lett
Collaborators: dr. L. Jager, dr. M. Stark
The aim of the research is to assess the economic risks related to the Hungarian forest sector due to the global climatic changes. Within the reporting period the following subchapters of the research plan were carried out:
- Currently about 40 percent the total wood stock is stored in forests of special purpose (e.g. protected, protective, etc.) Obviously one major feature of these forests is a lower economic utilization level. However this process is counter to the aim of the increase of mitigation level which focus on the more intensive wood utilization.
- Interviews of several forest managers highlighted that assumption that forest management using permanent forest cover has several advantages, namely the lack of regeneration duties and costs. This way of forest management may seriously reduce the risks of forest management. The paradigm that from financial point of view the final harvest is the most feasible solution, must be re-evaluated, using advanced financial calculations including risk assessment methods.
- Financial calculations proved that due to the transformation from beech to oak at threatened beech sites, there is no financial loss in the long run calculating the value of the mature stands of both types. However the additional costs of transformation and artificial regeneration are not favoured in profit oriented state forestry where there is a pressure to prove positive balance each year.
- A research was started to determine the economic value of to forests’ carbon accumulation. Carbon accumulation was modelled as an account balance where the interest at the time of the final harvest can reach as high as one third of the land value. This amount can be around 160 thousand HUF in case of a first yield class oak stand. However the realization of this hypothetical value is a political question.
- Effects of changing climatic factors on stand height were also evaluated in another research task. The selected tree species were oak, beech and Turkey oak.. All the factors were evaluated separately. The strongest connection was proved in case of Turkey oak but even in this case the correlation is quite low.
- There is an ongoing process to evaluate National Forestry Programs of other countries to apply their results in Hungary.